Critical Thinking

China Economic Research Paper

David Autor on Trade, China, and U.S. Labor Markets | EconTalk | Library of...
National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, January 2016. *"The China Syndrome: ... In the "Syndrome" paper, Autor argues that China displaced 1.5M US jobs over 16 years ( ... But I want to start where you start at the beginning of your recent paper, "The China ... He supports that argument ... ·

China Economic Research Paper

Now, a good side of this--of course the people have been responding by investing in education, right? People have--many, many more people attend college, and more of them complete it--not as many as should--different discussion. Treasury bonds are what people buy when they dont think there are good alternative investments. I wonder what retirement savings looked like in those communities that suffered setbacks.

And i think everyone, just about everyone was surprised by that as well. So, the way i think of it--and this was true of japan, as well, in the 1980s and 1990s--there are boats going from china, and they are still doing this, and what are those boats carrying? They are carrying all those textiles and all the great stuff that they produce. Point being, the decision to outsource is made with incomplete information, and its not made comparing like with like.

Is that a fair assessment? I agree with most of it but not all of it. They are certainly not going to the corkball players who used to be stars, who are now the also-rans. I just want to mention that, when i started teaching trade theory to my microeconomics students, and whats called the deadweight loss from a tariff or quota--which is a , and also intuition on how the world works--i want to say its a very valuable general set of skills.

But because there is an abundant supply of people who are even better. Labor force participation remains depressed and unemployment rates remain elevated for at least a decade after the china competitive shock commences. I think its an important point to remember.

I have listened to this three times and i suspect once more coming. I think whats distinctive about the china case are, 1. And look, you and i benefit from a lot.

So i think over the long run it has to be about peoples skills. And to do that, you have to have resources. And so it was a lot of, you know, high-skilled workers competing with one another but focusing on different areas of expertise. And many of these folks less educated workers--not? High school grad or high school dropout. Its sad that there is scarcity in the universe.


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Presentation of ReCAMA Research Paper & Panel Discussion on Sustainable Agricultural ... YEAR-END UPDATE: The Year-End Update of the 2016 Economic and Social Survey of Asia and ... Nanjing, China. * Fourth Meeting of Legal and Technical Working Groups on Cross-border ... Research & Data. Publications. ... ·

China Economic Research Paper


Scholarly Paper no. ID 984376. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network. Retrieved ... Job Creation and Economic Dynamism. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(3): 3-24. ... increasing rapidly as China and India increase the percentage of their population that is ... SSRN Scholarly Paper no. ... ·
China Economic Research Paper ·. So, if they couldnt somehow get a better deal by producing one thing, trading with another country and getting the thing that country produces, they wouldnt do so. Most government programs to alleviate short term pains end up with horrendous long term unintended consequences (see qe, extended unemployment benefits, sox, dodd-frank, many others). The gains are on net going to be positive as conventionally measured. And we care about our children and grandchildren. And instead just got the goods on loan from another country. He then proposes increasing redistribution to those individuals. Id like to see currency valuation included in the story, something that china does not let trade freely. I first understood comparative advantage for the first time given this explanation. Im sure this had put a downward pull on low skilled salaries around the nation in all low skilled job categories.
  • Balasubramanyam, V. N.<...


    But basically what weve done is, we can buy more than we produce--thats what a trade deficit, with respect to the rest of the world, thats what a trade deficit is. I think thats a dishonest way that we frequently sell it. I think the conventional wisdom was--i dont know--incentivize by a set of, for all kinds of things ideology and-- it. The good side of this is if you cant get a job as a ditch digger, you can get a job as a bus boy. Which is, i think it just misleads folks who dont know these issues, dont think about them a lot.

    These conversations about a new rigidity in the labor market bring to mind a hypothesis. Right? Even if the gains are positive in all likelihood on net, it was very devastating the way that people were not expecting to specific subsets, specific regions that went from being relatively robust manufacturing centers to being rather blinded?, or at least to a subset of people losing career employment and not being able to find good alternatives. And so, again, you come down to the same bottom line about trade, which is its raising gdp--and we dont dispute that question. Governments are not collectively smarter than properly incentivized individuals. That is, they took a slice of our future productivity as the price for the cheap goods, less expensive and attractive goods that they gave to us.

    And just--give me a subjective estimate of how confident you are in the magnitudes and how sensitive? I always like to ask, how many regressions did you run? And i know the answer is, a lot. And its quite possible that even though the pie grows in aggregate, certain slices shrink enough that individuals actually end up with a smaller piece of pie, even if there is more pie to go around, notionally. Professor balasubramanyam specialises in international trade, international investment and economic development. And in general, though thats an extremely stylized example, you can kind of , even in a straightforward blackboard exercise, that the size of the pie from that growth, from that improvement in quality, will to russ roberts or to all the domestic corkball players. To say that a company is injured because it has to lower its price in the face of competition is silly. Its that they and im happy to concede that point. Those things are hard to measure, the direct effect. They mostly do so in the least investment-oriented way possible treasury bonds. The net employment effects are somewhat larger, because of this sort of one-third multiplier, so you can add another half million to that. For example, theres a game my father played as a young boy called corkball, where you flip a cork underhand and hit it with the handle of a broomstick, akin to baseball.

    Find out more about Lancaster University's research activities, view details of ... Research output: Working paper. *. Published. China and India's economic relations with ... Home , Research. , Researchers , Vudayagi Balasubramanyam Research. *Research at ... Balasubramanyam, V. N. 2015 In : Journal ... ·

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    And what were trying to draw attention to. Because it strikes me--to pull it all together for the complexity of it is to say the following we know that labor force participation for prime age males has been falling. We cant be a country of all lawyers, nor can we be a country of all maids, nor can we be a country of all farmers nor silicon valley entrepreneurs. So, you are completely right to emphasize that. I think its more that the set of options that are available to them have really gotten worse.

    From a consumer perspective, some of those negative economic outcomes lower wages increased job turnoverare desirable. Over the next 10 years we will recover. Mix that with the higher classes ability to fund their childrens high skilled education, and you have an even greater separation of classes and quality of life Buy now China Economic Research Paper

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    If they ever manage to free themselves from communist party rule and become truly capitalist then we will have something to worry about. I think i said jobless recession i meant jobless recovery. But they move to other manufacturers or even outside manufacturing. Wilt chamberlain (the basketball player) would be a great house painter. And to pay that back, presumably we have to either make more stuff for export, which will create a lot of employment.

    And so, again, you come down to the same bottom line about trade, which is its raising gdp--and we dont dispute that question. Well, labor rate is a tiny piece of the true cost. Some purposely havent taken another job, which raises the question of how have they been supporting themselves? Its a combination of payments from their unions, social services, and some part-timead hoc work China Economic Research Paper Buy now

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    Over the next 10 years we will recover. My point is that those workers opportunities are no different than if china bought goods instead of investing. So thats the third factor--is the wto accession just caused--it was already going 60, it went from 60 to 100 in very short order. And they are not going to be compensated simply by having lower prices on, you know, stuff at walmart. Or, to take your corkball example, im going to go to my next best alternative, if that takes 10 years to find and it pays a fraction of what it paid before and i have no self-esteem and my family falls apart because i dont get pride in my work any more--thats.

    In my home town, chicken plants are unable to find employees (besides illegallegal immigrants) to work in the slaughter house Buy China Economic Research Paper at a discount

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    So, talk about what the assumptions have been that economists have worked under the priors they have about the impact of trade on welfare, the well-being of workers generally, and particularly workers maybe in areas that are competing directly with foreign imports. So, even though theres only a third as many as a share of population in 2015 as there were in 1980, seemingly demand has moved inward even faster such that their wages have fallen, such that employers view them as even less scarce. Im not sure the incentive, the outside option of being a non-worker, has been really improved in the time such that people dont have an incentive to work. Wilt chamberlain (the basketball player) would be a great house painter Buy Online China Economic Research Paper

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    So, when? Weve always known its costly to workers to be displaced and so in general you dont get fired from ford motor company and then just go start your own auto company and make a fortune at that. So its not just a few people losing jobs, but lots of people. The necessities all cost the same for rich and poor, and luxuries are limited by need. His latest book on india conversations with indian economists was published in 2001. But if you are actually , its very labor intensive.

    So, the rate at which things change affects how disruptive they are. The secretary has a comparative advantage in delivering papers in that system. So, thats exactly the distinction thats important to me that trade is--the simplest way to say it is its going to raise gdp (gross domestic product) in aggregate Buy China Economic Research Paper Online at a discount

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    Now, you might think those benefits are unemployment unemployment insurance and trade adjustment assistance (taa) and thats true. We are importing the fruits of a centrally controlled, malinvestment ridden, corrupt system which had a brief golden decade as it came from full communism to just a little capitalism. Why--whats the theoretical case for paying more attention to it? Sure. In economic theory, people should always be neutral between continuing work or being let go, but thats almost never the case. And then the fourth factor--and this one is really, is difficult also to explain the origins.

    But those folks, the low-education level folks, particularly men, are struggling to find work because of technology thats made them somewhat redundant and because of trade thats a new competitor China Economic Research Paper For Sale

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    I have listened to this three times and i suspect once more coming. But in reality, we havent seen a lot of evidence that said that trade was actually very disruptive for low-skilled workers in america. I wish that 10 of the population didnt take illegal drugs within last month. I think whats distinctive about the china case are, 1. How sensitive were your findings to the different assumptions you made? How wide was the range of effects? That it is a real effect and its not a small effect.

    Theres another question, though, and this is--i think other economists would say, well, you know, you are measuring the losses but you are not measuring the gains equally well. And i can talk more about how we did that if thats helpful, as well For Sale China Economic Research Paper

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    Lets turn to one aspect of this thats a little bit tricky. So, you tried different specifications some of them were more convincing maybe than others. Sorry, automation is a major factor in the decline of us manufacturing jobs and the increase in manufacturing output, which autor understands from some of his other papers. The necessities all cost the same for rich and poor, and luxuries are limited by need. And so a response to all these kind of changes, certain types of people sure.

    So its not that the degree of churn among those workers and movement out of the original firm--its not higher than among the highest earning, equally exposed, highest earning--its just that the high-earning guys seem more adaptable Sale China Economic Research Paper

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